The economy is in constant motion, and here at JDA, we’ve got our finger on the pulse. Our economists monitor the ebbs and flows of key indicators to provide critical analysis to our clients so they can make informed business decisions. Following are a series of six economic indicators that together paint the most current picture of US economic activity.
Communications
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
JDA’s Current Economic Forecast
Based on the indicators shown, JDA’s forecast for the economy in 2026 is, well, much more of the same. There is nothing to suggest that the economy will roar ahead at great speed, though there are black swans flying all about that could lead to some sort of crisis.
In effect, the economy should ride along with a general malaise and a hit of stagflation, though the risks are all on the down-side.
Forecast:
Inflation: 3.0 – 3.5 percent
Unemployment: Increasing along trend to about 5.0 percent
Market Interest Rates (10-year Bond): Increasing to 4.5-4.75 percent
Real GDP: Quarterly prints in the 2.0-2.5 percent range
Risks:
Increased military activity and hostilities in Europe, the Mid-East and South America
Commercial real estate asset price collapse in CA, NY, IL
Severe European recession, as well as US Tariffs stifling trade
Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)
The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is a trade weighted index that reflects the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a broad set of currencies. It is calculated by the Federal Reserve and is set to a base value of 100 as of January 2006. There has been a significant appreciation since 2006, and during the month of October 2025, the value rose by .7%
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index [DTWEXBGS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS.
Employment Level (CE16OV)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index [DTWEXBGS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS, December 30, 2025.
New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units (HOUST)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities [PPIACO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO, December 30, 2025.
Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities (PPIACO)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index by Commodity: All Commodities [PPIACO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO, January 7, 2026.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF)
The 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) represents the difference between the yield on a 10 year Treasury bond and the Federal Funds Rate. It helps gauge the demand for US Treasuries and influences interest rates in the economy. As of October 2025, the rate was 0.09%.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate [T10YFF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF.
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma (DCOILWTICO)
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is one of the main global benchmarks of oil pricing. As of October 30, 2025, the current price is $57.85 per barrel.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO.
